The global upstream exploration trend analysis of ten years
China petroleum and chemical co., LTD. Petroleum exploration and development research institute
A periodically, nearly 10 years the global exploration investment growth
Nearly a decade, the global upstream Exploration Investment on behalf of (Exploration Investment in Nominal terms) presents the fast growth the tendency, from $2002 in 22.5 billion to $2012 in 96.2 billion, an average annual growth of 15.6%; Which is a continuous growth peak in 2004-2008, average annual growth of 25.87%. But after stripping out inflation, Real Exploration Investment (Exploration Investment in Real terms) gently, increase by $2002 in 22.1 billion to $2012 in 43 billion, an average annual increase of only 6.9%. It is worth noting that in 2006, 2007 and 2008, during the period of high oil prices in the name of the upstream exploration investment grew by 36%, 36% and 20% respectively compared to the same, while the actual exploration investment only increased by 3.6%, 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively, this is mainly due to high oil prices high inflation period oil industry into nature, led to the nominal ?
Second, the exploration of new oil and gas reserves growth lags behind the actual exploration investment
Oil and gas exploration is a kind of high risk, long cycle, effective slow production and business operation activities. In 2002-2012 world reserves of oil and gas exploration in new average annual growth of 5.4%, slightly lower than the same period the average annual growth of actual exploration investment (6.9%). And exploration of new oil and gas reserves, the rapid growth of the rapid growth of lagging behind the actual exploration investment.
As can be seen from 2001 to 2012, from the global exploration investment surged to obtain results need 5 ~ 6 years: 2002-2007 is the actual exploration investment continued sharp growth, increased from $22.1 billion in 2002 to $2007 in 32.1 billion, the average annual growth of 7.4%, but the exploration of new reserves of basic stable, and even fell slightly.
Present ? 2008 years later, the exploration of new reserves
For the hysteresis characteristics of oil and gas exploration and discovery, petroleum enterprises must attach importance to it, when the upstream investment plan to ensure steady and sustained growth of actual exploration input, in order to obtain low cost high quality guarantee the exploration of new reserves.
Three, use new technology to global real reserves found cost stability
1. Nearly a decade the global oil and gas reserves found actual cost slightly higher
Reserves found cost effective measure oil company is a important index for oil and gas resources, usually refers to obtain a barrel of oil equivalent through exploration spending proved reserves, it reflects the oil exploration and capital use efficiency, can be represented as:
Reserves found = the occurrence of exploration with a total investment of cost/the new proved reserves of oil and gas exploration
2. The degree of prospecting precipitated reserves found higher costs
Review the global more than hundred years (1921-2012) the exploration course, its rule is along with the deepening degree of prospecting and found that the smaller size, increased difficulties of exploration, and global oil and gas found, on average, showed a trend of decreasing reserve scale, from 1921 to 1940 reduced by an average of 806 million barrels of oil equivalent to 2001-2012 annual average 059 million barrels of oil equivalent. In deepwater areas with a similar decline trend. Discovery the decline trend of average reserves will inevitably lead to rising cost of oil and gas reserves discovered gradually.
At the same time, along with the increasingly complex oil and gas exploration and geomorphic conditions, desert, mountains, deep water and shrub jungle proportion of complex surface increases year by year. In the world oil and gas reserves, the exploration of new deep water and the proportion of the desert by 27 of 1983-1992
Four, conclusion and suggestion
1) in the last ten years the global oil and gas exploration investment on the rise. Name of exploration investment grew by an average of 15.6% a year, the actual exploration investment grew by an average of 6.9% a year, inflation lead to artificially high nominal exploration investment.
2) in the last ten years the global exploration of new oil and gas reserves, the average annual increase of exploration investment (5.4%) is slightly lower than the actual average annual growth rate (6.9%). New oil and gas reserves, the rapid growth of the rapid growth of lagging behind the actual exploration investment 5 ~ 6 years. Therefore, sustained, stable exploration investment is to maintain the subsequent discovery of funding.
3) for nearly 10 years of rapid growth of global oil and gas reserves found in the name of cost (average 9.7%) is only superficial phenomenon, after inflation, actually found, there is no significant cost growth (average 1.5%).